So Who’s Moving The Betting Lines?

Posted: February 9, 2010 in basketball, Blogroll, football, sports
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The Best Bet Was a Winner last night as Villanova went to Morgantown and whipped the Mountaineers. The line movement in that game was very interesting and I thought that this would be a good time to talk about why lines move, who’s moving them, and how we can capitilize on them when they do. Let me just say that there are so many misconceptions about line moves and some of those come from who are considered Good Handicappers and people in the know. They just don’t. I have a very unique situation in that I have access to two good friends who work for Books. One is a very large book in Miami, the other one is offshore. I am allowed to pick their brains as to why a particular line moved and where a potential on is going. That gives me a lot of ammunition that most bettors don’t have.

The History of Line Moves
Back in the day before the internet, lines moves were about as fast as those at Walmart on Black Friday. We as bettors just did not have the tools to know where they were and what they were going to do. Much like Wall Street is now, we have access to every single move, and that is why stocks have more upward and downward moves as does betting lines at the various books. Because of that we usually get the best betting line if we are diligent and we have enough outs. I suggest getting at least 2 sources to bet at, and preferably many more. I have 6 myself. I also suggest you have at least 1 Sharp Book, like Bookmaker, The Greek, or Pinnacle, and at least 1 Square Book like Carib, Bodog, or 5Dimes. That is going to give you the Optimum chance of having the best number just about on every play.

The Line Movers
I often watch some comical conversations about who is moving lines. Most believe that it is by what most people call The Wiseguys. You know, the guys that wear the Trenchcoats and Hats and all talk like they are from New Jersey. (Future Blog Post on who actually are the wiseguys) The fact is, there are a number of things that can move a line and it does not have to be a guy or a group of guys named Vito, Bruno, or Carmello. Books often move lines simply based on what they feel will be the action if they do not. That was the case with Villanova yesterday as it opened at West Va. -5 and quickly moved to -5.5. It did so not because of huge money being poured on the Mountaineers, it did so because early betting suggested that there would be. The TRUE OPENING LINE therefore was -5.5 and that was exactly where it closed. However, because the books did what they did, many bettors jumped on the STEAM TRAIN and drove it quickly up to -6. That is when I released my Villinova +6 play. That is how you play the numbers. By gametime the line had stabilized again and back to -5.5. The Books were balanced, and my clients won money. Handicappers move lines well. There are probably 5 to 7 of them that have a great following and when they release a play, books automatically re-adjust. Not because of the money but because of the perception of many that that side or total is the right play.

Don’t Fall Into The Trap
There is much more that I am going to cover on this subject but for now let me just warn you. Just because a line moves, that does not mean that BIG MONEY is being played on that side. That does not mean that you should follow that play. There is much more to it than that, and if you are only following the line adjustments, then you are going to lose more than you win. I am going to be talking about Reverse Line Movements, another misconception by most Bettors very soon so stay tuned for that.

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