This Blog is designed to provide both the Smart Bettor and Average Better with information they can use. It is not up on the Web to Promote AAA Sports as I do enough of that elsewhere to attract Quality Sports Investors. But from time to time, I do want everyone to know how good, or bad my plays are doing. Right now, they are doing very good with the Best Bet/Diamond Combo producing a Perfect 8-0 over the last 8 Investments. Overall, the Diamond Club has just been a Killer at 124-61 and the Combo since inception is 235-136. That is actually better than anticipated, but the info has been grand, and that should continue through March Madness and into the MLB Season. Many of you already know that Baseball is the best sport for me and by far the easiest to beat. Let’s look forward to some more Large Profits in the coming weeks/months.

In addition, I will have some nice articles/thoughts right here on how to beat March Madness and also how to beat MLB. That is coming within the next few days on this Blog, so stayed tuned and check back daily.

Last night prior to going out for the evening, I was at my Livingroom Window gazing out at the Mighty Mississippi River and casually mentioned to my Significant Other that I had a Big Bet on an NHL Game. Without blinking an eye, she picked up the Television Remote and exclaimed, “Is that game on TV?” I was in total shock of course since she had not expressed any interest in the NHL ever. The Olympic Hockey had peaked her interest in the sport and she had become a fan almost overnight. We did not watch the game, and instead went out for some oysters and beer. That game was the Capitals/Lightning OVER the Total and it was an easy winner with 9 goals being scored.

But What does this Mean?
This means that there is a whole lot of interest in the NHL right now and the games following the Olympics have seen a lot of new faces in the stands. This always happens after the Big International Tourney and NHL League Officials are taking note. They want to keep these new faces coming to the games, they want higher TV Rankings, and one way to make sure they obtain this, is to make sure that the games are entertaining to the newcomers. How do they do that? That is simple. They Showcase the Talent in the League by having them Score a Lot of Goals. Sports Fans love to see scoring and that is true in every sport. The NHL is no different and low and behold we are seeing a lot of goals here in the early going following the Olympics.

Why Are We Seeing a Lot of Scoring?
Sometimes it pays to have good contacts when betting sports for a living and I happen to have a very good NHL Guy that gives me info from time to time. He is a very good source and most reliable. He tells me that over the weekend, NHL League Officials sent a note to all NHL Referees strictly enforcing holding and interference penalties as set forth in the rule book. The Note pretty much said that this has not been done as it should have been done this year and that they expect it to be done now. It does not take a Genius to know that more penaties mean three things. (1) More Power Plays. (2) Less Defensive Intensity. (3) More Scoring.

Let’s Look at the Results So Far
Prior to Last Night’s Action OVER in NHL Games have hit at 19-4-2 since the break. That is more than just a small abberation even on the small sample. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen but one thing is for sure. Oddsmakers might be slow to react since the NHL does not get anywhere near the volume of bets that other sports do. That is going to be especially true with the NBA coming down to crunch time and NCAA Touneys here upon us. So are this Odds that Oddsmakers are putting out going to continue to go Under the Radar. Certainly not. Vegas will, if not already, take note of this trend. However, they have not yet to the most degree. That might give us some good opportunities until this well runs dry and they start re-adjusting Totals upward.

Some Final Thoughts
This does not mean that we should bet all NHL Totals OVER without looking into the games further. This does mean that we should consider these changes when we do look at the games. Perhaps that Under Play you thought might be a good opportunity is not. Perhaps that Over Play you like, might be bumped upward. As a Professional Handicapper, I am always looking for an edge, whether that be longterm or shorterm. This might be a good shortime Edge for sure and already has been. Incidentally, the Capitals/Lightning game last night featured only the 11th time this year that we have seen a Posted Line at 6.5 Goals. With last nights win, OVER is now 11-0 in those games. Is that an Edge? I think so. It looks like we will be watching some NHL here at my house with the Peaked Interest that my mate has for it. I just hope that I am not zapped with any holding or interference penalties during the games. (smile)

Handicapping Professional Sports and College Sports are very similar in many ways, but in some ways they are totally different and distinguishing between the two can be good for your bankroll. While I have not reached Senior Citizen Status just yet, I have been around the block a few times and I certainly have grown as an individual along the way. I still have a way to go before I grow up and of course I would like to keep it that way. However, there are certain things in my life that are much more stable now than when I was a young brash college athlete of 18 years old.

Distractions
When I was growing up, we did not have this fancy texting device that we have now. All we had was a home phone, and of course a CB Radio. Today’s kids have got it all, with texting, internet chat, and video games galore. And let’s not forget about those IPods. These are clearly distractions to everyday life and in fact they are everyday life. Young Girls today can also be a huge distraction to a young man trying to grow up, and although it is a nice distraction to have, they can deter one from doing and concentrating on things that are most important.

What Does This Mean?
It means that College Age Athletes have a lot more to deal with. They don’t come home everyday to the same routine, and in some cases, they don’t come home at all. Emotionally, they can be a Rollercoaster and Physically, they can be a disaster sometimes unless they are watched over carefully. They tend to wear everything on their sleeve and that makes them less predictable in how they will perform in a game situation. Or does it? I like to refer to college athletes as Unpredictably Predictable. That means that there are certain situations where we can most likely expect them to act accordingly. They simply have more highs and more lows and know when that is going to happen is paramount to betting success with College Sports.

Let’s Put This to Use
Last night the Kentucky Wildcats hosted a team that gave them their first loss of the season. They were flying high at the time of that first meeting, doing a lot of texting, playing a lot of video games, and getting plenty of “Comfort” from their girlfriends as the made their trip to Columbia, South Carolina. They were simply unfocused and certainly felt like they were unstoppable. As a 7 point favorite, they got their ass handed to them. Last night, they were focused in a Big Way, and they returned the favor. I have seen this scenerio time and time again and spotting this behavior gives you a great advantage. West Virginia for instance has had unfocused and focused behavior this year as well, most recently losing at UConn to a very focused Husky Squad. I can look at most every quality team’s record this year game for game and see letdowns, and also see moments of greatness. There are more and better opportunities to spot this behavior in College Sports because of the Highly Emotional and Highly Unstableness of those that play at these ages. Let’s always remember that going forward.

Being in this business for 20 years I feel that it is my duty to help others that are striving to make it in this very competitive market in which we are in. Contained in this article will be all the weapons you need to make you a Big Shot but you are going to have to change some things if you have not already. Nobody has to know that you are handicapping daily while sitting at the coffee table in your den whoofing down Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Nobody has to know that your Day Job as a UPS Delivery Guy is the reason why you release your plays late in the day, after the last delivery. Only tell them what they need to know and you are well on your way to Big Money.

Your Name
This is probably the most important aspect of being successful and if you don’t have the right name you are starting out on the wrong foot. Your actual name is probably boring and does not really mean anything. So, let’s get a better one. Italian names are the best because Italians are connected. You know what I mean. These guys have all the inside info and everyone knows that. Some of the best names have already been taken but still plenty of good one’s out there, like Rizzo, Lombardi, De Luca, Mancini, and Moretti. You don’t really have to be Italian but it does help to know a few Italian words. Your first name is even more important as it denotes something about you. One of the best is “Lefty” but once again you don’t really have to be lefthanded. However, it would be best that when in a public situation to pick up and eat your Little Debbie Snack Cakes with your lefthand. If that is not the way you want to go then I have some other ideas. The Word “Bookie” is always a good one. The Bookie Basher, Bookie Killer, Bookie Destroyer, Roll your Bookie, Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him, Force Feed Your Bookie with Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Please note that I am not sure if that last one probably will Google very well. However, I think you get the idea. The Best idea by far is to just be “Lefty Lombardi” of “Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him.” That should cover all of the bases.

Your Punctuation
This is so very important because it gives everything you do excitement and drives people to action. You must us Exclamation Points as often as possible. Multiple Exclamation Points are even better!!! Do you see how you gravitated to that last sentence. It works and it works big. Example: “I have a Nice Card tonight and one of those plays is a Big Game out West.” Wrong!! “Don’t Miss Tonight’s West Coast Bookie Destroyer!!!!” Now which pick are you going to buy? Some of the better Handicapping Services actually disable all forms of punctuation from their laptops so that the Exclamation Point is the only one they can use. You might want to check into that.

Your Picks
We have already covered some of this above but let’s put it to use. You can’t just pick games, you have to pick Bombs!! You have to have multiple Game of Years!! And you have to make sure your potential client knows that they are an idiot if they don’t buy your pick. Example: “Does a Freaking Nuclear Bomb have to go off on your Front Porch before you Realize that you need My West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!!” Nobody wants a Nuclear Bomb to go off on their front porch do they? Of course not. If they don’t buy that, then there is no hope for that potential client and time to churn him and move on. It is important to note that Churning Clients is no real big deal. There are always plenty of Suckers out there willing to buy from a Guy named Lefty who uses exclamation points. And there is no reason to just have one Game of Year. Daily is always better and at least weekly. NFC GOY. AFC GOY. Monday Nite GOY. West Coast GOY. Big Ten GOY. North of the Equator GOY. Surely you can come up with 365 of these throughout the year and don’t stop there. Games of the Decade are even better and Games of the Century are just flat out Money in the Bank. And please, don’t forget those Exclamation Points!!!

Miscellaneous Points
I could probably do a 3 Day Seminar on how to improve your productivity but I will just point out some other ideas to get your Handicapping Services on the right path. Make sure to get on those Pre-Printed Rotation Schedules that come out in early August. This is where you can promote all of your GOY’s as they come out in the fall. This way as your potential clients turn the page on October 23rd, they will see your smiling face holding your Little Debbie Snack Cake in your lefthand, telling everyone about that Nuclear Bomb and the Big West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!! And for God’s Sake, make your Biggest Plays on the Biggest Games. Nobody wants to bet Elon College. They want to bet The Dallas Cowboys. You know, the one’s on TV. It is important to note here that once you have Locked in a Client, you need to continue to Sell him. Yeah sure, he thought he bought all of your picks but wait!! You have just recieved, from one of your Italian Connections, a BIG INSIDER PLAY. This is not part of the regular package but for an additional $29.95 you can get it. Your Client is not going to argue with you. Nobody argues with a guy named Lefty (Insert Italian Name).

You Must Have a Staff
Ok, this is a No Brainer here. One guy cannot operate his handicapping service effectively without a staff. Everyone knows that. Never say “I have isolated a HUGE INSIDER BIG WEST COAST BOOKIE DESTROYER GAME OF THE DECADE BLOWOUT. Always use WE because WE denotes a staff. People like the fact that your office is a busy place with other Lefthanded Italians running around, making phone calls, securing Fixes and such.

I hope that I made this simple enough that even a 4 Year Old Child could understand and I promise you that if you put these things in motion, you are going to reap the benefits. Hey, why not get a 4 Year Old Child to read this. You can make him part of your staff!! And the best thing is, he will probably work for just a couple of Little Debbie Snacks a day. And you already have those right?

On Sunday I got a really good question by email on the difference between a Sharp Book and a Square Book. I thought the information was worthy to be here so I am posting my response below.

A SHARP BOOK
A Sharp Book is one that is best described as one that takes Sharp Money,
or Large Bets. The Greek for instance brags about the fact that they will
take a Million Dollar Wager. Sharp books don’t cut you off if you are
winning because of the large number of players they have, you are still
helping even out their books. Sharp Books have sharper lines which usually
means that they tend to favor Underdogs and UNDERS. Watching line moves at
the Sharp Books can usually tell you where the Big Money is going.

A SQUARE BOOK
A Square Book has limits as to what you can bet, with most having limits
of $5000 or less on Side Bets and less than that on Total Bets. Square
Books regularly single out some bettors and decrease their wager limits if
they are winning over an extended period of time. In some cases they even
terminate accounts.  But there are a ton of these books and one can always
find one or two more if cutoff by any of them. Square Books have Square
lines, meaning that they favor the Favorites and OVERS. Watching line
moves at Square Books can usually tell you where the Square Money is
going.

The Bottom Line is this: In many if not most cases, there is going to be a
1/2 to 1 point difference in the Posted Betting Line at a Sharp Book
verses a Square Book and having that advantage is Huge, depending on
whether you are playing the Favorite/Dog, Over/Under. A case in Point was
last night’s Best Bet with the Playing being Georgetown/Rutgers UNDER
139.5. I actually got 140 at one of the Square Books but I could have
gotten as low as 139 at one of the Sharp Books. If I had decided to play
the OVER, I would have done so there. The Game Ended on 139 and at certain
points of the day would have been a push at most Sharp Book. Instead we
had a winner. It is almost Uncanny how many times games end right at or
near the Number and having more betting outs at differently described
books is going to better your bottom line. For a list of Sharp/Square Books feel free to email me.

During my 20 Years of Running a Handicapping Service, I have talked to a lot of Bettors who have lost a lot of money and are searching for the answer to their problems. In almost every case, they did not have a plan of action, they were betting too many games, they were following too many handicappers, and they were using poor Money Management Practices. The fact is, in some cases, after they subscribed to AAA Sports, and after I had a Nice Winning Month, they told me that they were going to have to quit for a while because they had lost that month overall and could not afford to continue. What? Nothing surprises me anymore and I know why these Bettors are never going to win substantial money, or any at all unless they change their Betting Behavior.
 
You Must Have a Betting Plan
Most Bettors haphazardly go from day to day without a plan for success and that is probably 80% of their downfall. They just don’t know what they are doing. They bet varying amounts of money per game, based on how they feel about that investment, and in many cases based on how much they have won, or lost, that week, or even that day. I wish I could count the emails that I recieve from people asking me to give them “ONE BIG GAME” because they HAVE TO WIN tonight, or they have won some money and want to “DOUBLE THEIR WINNINGS.” That does not work Folks. Those people are going to lose. They are going to go through life being miserable and in many cases, they are going to blame someone else for their problems. I can’t help most of these Bettors but I do try and in some cases I succeed. Betting sports is exactly the same as playing the Stock Market. You can’t Day Trade, you have to do the Longterm Investments and the one’s that pay off everytime. You must also be willing to cut your losses and realize that everyday is not going to be a winning day
 
Following Hot Handicappers
How many times have I seen somebody in a forum say something like “Hey I found a Guy that is Hot! He is 13-4 in his last 17!!” Big Freaking Deal. They then jump on this guy and he promply losses his ass over the next 20 to 30 plays. Everyone has Hot Streaks. Everyone has Cold streaks. That is the nature of this business. Seeking longterm winners is the key and in most cases, a minimum of 200 to 300 Plays tells you whether someone has the ability to continue to be a winner or not. Simply put, you have to do your homework. You have to search for those guys that can hit 54% or more for an extended period of time. There are not many that can, but there are some that do. Avoid Hot Streaks at all costs and you are well on your way to beating this game.
 
Managing Your Bankroll
I have already covered much of this in this segment and there is a really good Money Management Program on this site. While there are many theories about how much to play per play, the general rule is 2% to 3% of your current Bankroll. However, as your Bankroll grows, you are allowed to bet more but you must set clear goals as to when you bet more. This Program gives you a step by step approach for doing this. I have for the last 9 years and I promise you that it works. If you can only afford to lose 5 Grand, you can’t be betting $500 per game. By playing 2% to 3%, $100 to $150, based on a $5000 Bankroll, you are going to weather the cold streaks, and you are going to prosper during the Hot Streaks. I always tell my more degenerative clients that if you have to have some money on other games that I don’t pick, play them for 1/2% of your Bankroll. That gives you some “Action” without doing much or any harm to your overall goal.
 
Reaping The Benefits of The Plan
My best suggestion is to find 2 to 3 Handicappers that have Longterm Winning Results. Ideally one’s that can each find 1 to 2 plays on a Daily Card. Play those games at 2% to 3% of current Bankroll. Follow sound Money Management Principles and have some fun playing much smaller amounts on games that you like. You will have much less stress knowing that you have a Winning Approach, you will make money, and in some cases, depending on the advice you are recieving, a lot of money. This is not an Advertisment about becoming a AAA Sports Member. There are plenty of solid handicappers out there, both paid and free. It is about getting your situation under control and becoming successful. I can safely say that I have helped 100’s of people find their way through the difficult process of converting how they invest, and if I can help you do the same, I am as close as your email. Can you make a Living Betting Sports. DAMN RIGHT YOU CAN.

The Best Bet Was a Winner last night as Villanova went to Morgantown and whipped the Mountaineers. The line movement in that game was very interesting and I thought that this would be a good time to talk about why lines move, who’s moving them, and how we can capitilize on them when they do. Let me just say that there are so many misconceptions about line moves and some of those come from who are considered Good Handicappers and people in the know. They just don’t. I have a very unique situation in that I have access to two good friends who work for Books. One is a very large book in Miami, the other one is offshore. I am allowed to pick their brains as to why a particular line moved and where a potential on is going. That gives me a lot of ammunition that most bettors don’t have.

The History of Line Moves
Back in the day before the internet, lines moves were about as fast as those at Walmart on Black Friday. We as bettors just did not have the tools to know where they were and what they were going to do. Much like Wall Street is now, we have access to every single move, and that is why stocks have more upward and downward moves as does betting lines at the various books. Because of that we usually get the best betting line if we are diligent and we have enough outs. I suggest getting at least 2 sources to bet at, and preferably many more. I have 6 myself. I also suggest you have at least 1 Sharp Book, like Bookmaker, The Greek, or Pinnacle, and at least 1 Square Book like Carib, Bodog, or 5Dimes. That is going to give you the Optimum chance of having the best number just about on every play.

The Line Movers
I often watch some comical conversations about who is moving lines. Most believe that it is by what most people call The Wiseguys. You know, the guys that wear the Trenchcoats and Hats and all talk like they are from New Jersey. (Future Blog Post on who actually are the wiseguys) The fact is, there are a number of things that can move a line and it does not have to be a guy or a group of guys named Vito, Bruno, or Carmello. Books often move lines simply based on what they feel will be the action if they do not. That was the case with Villanova yesterday as it opened at West Va. -5 and quickly moved to -5.5. It did so not because of huge money being poured on the Mountaineers, it did so because early betting suggested that there would be. The TRUE OPENING LINE therefore was -5.5 and that was exactly where it closed. However, because the books did what they did, many bettors jumped on the STEAM TRAIN and drove it quickly up to -6. That is when I released my Villinova +6 play. That is how you play the numbers. By gametime the line had stabilized again and back to -5.5. The Books were balanced, and my clients won money. Handicappers move lines well. There are probably 5 to 7 of them that have a great following and when they release a play, books automatically re-adjust. Not because of the money but because of the perception of many that that side or total is the right play.

Don’t Fall Into The Trap
There is much more that I am going to cover on this subject but for now let me just warn you. Just because a line moves, that does not mean that BIG MONEY is being played on that side. That does not mean that you should follow that play. There is much more to it than that, and if you are only following the line adjustments, then you are going to lose more than you win. I am going to be talking about Reverse Line Movements, another misconception by most Bettors very soon so stay tuned for that.