Posts Tagged ‘Blogroll’

Baseball Season is upon us and while many Bettors will be winding down and
looking forward to the 2010 Football Season, I will be Revving it up over
the next few months and producing profits that are simply not possible
with football and hoops. Why is that? Because Baseball is not only a
different animal, it is GODZILLA and the Japanese People in my
neighborhood will once again be running for the hills. Baseball, unlike
the other two major sports allows us to actually win more money than we
bet, giving us the decided advantage over the books. Not only that, but
because Baseball is a finese Sport, the Ole Phrase, “Anyone can beat
Anyone else on any given day” is much more truer with this sport.

Underdogs Verses Favorites
I am going to try and do my best not to bore you with tons of statistics
in this exercise, but we are going to have to use a few so bear with me.
Let’s begin with Moneyline Stats over the last 8 years. This length of
time gives us enough scope to determine what has been profitable and what
has not. Betting Underdogs has not been profitable. However, we can find
some situations that have been and the fact is, some are just plain BAD
ASS Profitable. If you had bet ever Underdog in the last 8 years in
Baseball, you would have bet a lot of games and you would have lost just over 179 Units. That’s not too good but let’s look at the other side of the story. If you had bet every favorite you would lost over 730 Units. What does this mean? It means that you have over a 4 Times better chance of winning money if you bet Dogs. But you would still have lost right? Absolutely, because it can’t be that easy.

Baseball Underdogs that are Profitable
There are situations that have produced large profits over the last 8 years and the most prevalent one makes a lot of sense. Teams that play each other a lot often are more motivated to win and so it would make senses that Win/Loss Numbers would be close to 50% than any other situation. And they are. If you had bet all Divisional games (Teams in the same Division) over the last 8 years, you would have over 202 Units of Profit in your Wallet. That is a lot of money. That is GODZILLA Money. In addition to that, Dogs have done much better in the second half of the season and once again for a simple reason. Late in the year, more public money comes into play. That drives Line upward, giving you more value for your buck. I am not telling you to bet all Division Dogs, I am telling you that this is always a good starting point but there is more.

The Mid Relievers
There is a strong correlation between the strength of a team’s Bullpen and
how well they do both in the standings, and in the money made playing
them. When I talk about the Pens, I am not talking about who has the best
closer, although that does come into play. The average starting pitcher
rarely gets past the sixth inning. The average closer rarely gets past 2/3
of an inning. The fact is, as the season progresses, the starting thrower
becomes less and less important and from about May 20th until the end of
the season, starters will average just under 2/3 of an inning less than
previous games. That is based on the last 8 years and that is a
misconception to many. On average we can expect the guy who throws the
first pitch to last about 5.2 innings meaning 1 out short of 6. In
addition, we can expect him to leave the game more times than not, with
runners in scoring position and usually with less than 2 outs. That is why
the mid-line throwers are so important. Here is some info from a selected
year.

Top 6 Money Teams of 2006
Minnesota
Oakland
New York Mets
Detroit
Kansas City
San Diego

The Top 5 Bullpens of 2006
Minnesota
New York Mets
San Diego
Detroit
Oakland

These are listed in order and as you can see, the Top 6 Bullpen’s also
comprised the Top 5 Money Teams. The only excpetion was KC who won some
huge moneyline plays late in the year. Similar results can be found in
previous years and latter years. In most cases, I would rather have a mediocre starter and a good Pen, than the opposite. That works out very well since that is the exact opposite of the way Vegas would like us to think. Vegas Sets Baseball Lines on two factors. The Starting Pitcher and now good or bad he is, and the overall perception of how good or bad a team is. It is our job to determine whether those guys who set the odds have done their homework and often they have not. Let’s remember one important thing. The best pitcher in the league can have a bad outing, the worst one can have a good one, bullpens generally remain fairly consistant. We do have a rate Bullpens for teams like Tampa Bay and Colorado differently because of the venue at which they play. But in most cases, Bullpen ERA is the best way to do this.

Betting Baseball Favorites
It is a fact that over the last 11 years, Baseball favorites have won right at 58% of the time. That means that if all betting lines during this timeframe were -135 plays, one would have broken even. But they are not. And the winning percentages of those games -140 to -220 do not go up as the line goes up. Anything past -140 is the worst losing proposition in Baseball. If you are playing these, you already have one leg in the well and GODZILLA is closing fast. Run Akatsuki, run!! I am not saying that these play don’t sometimes offer value, I am saying that when you bet them, you are already starting out in the hole. Tread lightly with these.

Betting Baseball Runlines
This is probably my favorite subject but not my favorite bet. Anytime I have seen anyone on the internet talk about betting runlines, they always are doing so laying -1.5 Runs. Have we forgotten that we can bet +1.5 Runs? I do that often and when I do, it is usually a Dog Division Game with a pitcher on the mound coming off a poor effort. I am going to cover that Pitcher Poor effort thing in more detail but let’s stay focused on this for now. Below is the Probability of winning by more than 1 run when a team wins the game outright. These stats are from the last 9 years. They are very interesting indeed.

-110s: 70.8%
-120s: 72.3%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.1%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%

Does anyone see what I see? There is not that big a difference in teams winning by more than one run as the Moneyline Spread Rises. What does that mean for us? It means that playing -110’s to -140’s at -1.5 Runs is going to be more profitable than playing anything higher. But here’s the deal. Most Bettors don’t play -1.5 Runlines until the line gets to -150 and those ar the least profitable choice of all based on line value. I do rarely play any -1.5 Runline and all the Ducks have to be lined up before I even consider it, but when I do, I am going to be betting them to give me a + Money Payout and not a -. The Most interesting -1.5 Runline Stats are below and it denotes how often teams win by more than 1 run when they do win the game.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites more than -120: 80.1%

As we can see, Road -1.5 Runlines do much better than Home -1.5 Runlines. That is simply because the road team always gets their 9 times at bat whereas the home team does not. Vegas does adjust for this fact with lower runline payouts for road -1.5 runline teams.

Additional Thoughts
I could write an entire book on other situations that are winning propositions and I will have more info as the season progresses. I am going to have a separate article on Winning Baseball Totals a little later in the Spring. I do want to let everyone know that some of these stats here come from various websites as well as some that I keep myself. Let’s briefly talk about two of my favorite situations though. The first is The Bounceback Pitcher. I love this one because it gives us two things. It gives us a starter who is motivated to perform well following a not so spiffy performance. And it gives us a Betting Line that is usually out of whack. As Stated before, most bettors bet starting pitchers and these people also usually bet against throwers who are not performing well. The fact is, that is the best time to back a starter. The Second One is The Bounceback Hitter. This is along the same line as the previous one. Teams off ZERO Runs scored get good line value and over the last 6 years have turned a profit each and every year. This is one to look for throughout the season.

There is a reason why I have produced a profit betting baseball over the last 19 years and it is because I always put myself in the best possible winning position. If you do that, you will win also, and the Japanese People in your neighbohood will pay the price.

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Ok, since the name of this piece is “The Four M’s” lets go ahead and get what those are out there so you won’t be skipping past all of the important stuff to see what they are. They are Momemtum, Motivation, Money, and Mo D. Now I know that Mo is not really a word and for that matter neither is D. But I was looking for a Cool Title so just humor me on this so that I can have 4 M’s. These M’s can and will give you a quick jumpstart on who is going to fair well over the next few weeks.

Momentum
This first one is kind of tricky because momentum does not necesarily mean a team that is coming into the Tourney winning a bunch of games, is going to be a good play. The fact is, often it can mean getting a better number because of this and betting against those teams because they are too overvalued. Oddsmakers are not stupid people, although we would like to think so, and as a handicapper I often do call them that. That is just simply a “Wanting to be cool Thing” going on with me so you have to overlook it. There are, however, some squads that do have a lot of momemtum coming in, and one’s that are peaking in their capabilities, but are not getting enough respect for that because their overall record for the year is not all that spiffy. These are the one’s you will want to find, and these are the one’s that you might will want to bet, if the number is a good one. The phrase “Under the Radar” comes to mind here.

Motivation
Some College Basketball Teams just want to win more than others. Finding those teams can be very good for your bankroll, but who are they? Why are they more motivated? While it is not a written rule, generally we have to have two things in place to have a motivated squad. We almost always have to have a group of Kids on the court that have been here before. It’s the Ole, been there, done that thing. But more importantly, it is teams that have a junior and senior laden roster. These guys are getting what might be their last chance to be the team cutting down the nets. In some cases, they have no real chance of doing that, but that does not mean that they will not give it the Ole College Try. These squads do not have to be the Big Boys of this Tournament, they can be the Winthrop’s, the Northern Iowa’s, the Cornell’s. These Guys are not going to go out without a fight, and in some cases they will be getting an inordinate amount of points from those Stupid Oddsmakers. Whoops, I said it again.

Money
Ok, here is another tricky one. While many might not agree with this statement I will throw it out there anyway. The NCAA Selection Committee wants to put the best teams on the court, but they also want the Tourney’s to make money. Including too many Big 10, Big East, and Big 12 squads in the group of 64 means that there will be high TV Revenue, high attendence, and more money. Oddsmakers know this too because these are not stupid people. (See Above) They know that we bettors as a whole, are going to bet these High Profile Teams and so they set lines that are maybe just a bit out of whack. That gives us some real bargains to work with, perhaps with those squads that are more motivated to win. You know, the junior and senior laden teams and the one’s that do what is written about below.

Mo D
No, this is not the name of a Famous Rapper. Well let me correct that. This might be the name of a Famous Rapper because I am not really up on the current one’s past MC Hammer. This Stands for More Defense. While overused a bit, it is a fair statement to make that Defense wins games. This is true in almost any sport but maybe more true in this tournament. Teams that allow less than 40% shooting are already well on their way to being competitive, especially in the Big Games, and let’s face it, all of these games are Big. You would be hardpressed to find any NCAA Champion that did not play Mo D than the rest of their opponents in these games. Mo D creates turnovers. Mo D creates fewer better quality shots by opponents. Mo D creates more fast break opportunities. The Simple fact is, Mo D allows for Mo O which gives teams Mo Memtum and therefore Mo Tivation late in games.

Mo Thoughts
The Tip of the Iceburg has been covered here but it is important to note that level of competition is also important. Not only who teams beat, but how often they played quality teams throughout the year and how they faired against them. Oddsmakers would like for you to believe that the Missouri Valley, CAA and other smaller groups of teams don’t play a good level of competition. They want you to buy into the fact that if they say Wisconsin is 10 points better than Wofford, then they are. These Oddsmaker Guys are not stupid. Have I said that yet?

This Blog is designed to provide both the Smart Bettor and Average Better with information they can use. It is not up on the Web to Promote AAA Sports as I do enough of that elsewhere to attract Quality Sports Investors. But from time to time, I do want everyone to know how good, or bad my plays are doing. Right now, they are doing very good with the Best Bet/Diamond Combo producing a Perfect 8-0 over the last 8 Investments. Overall, the Diamond Club has just been a Killer at 124-61 and the Combo since inception is 235-136. That is actually better than anticipated, but the info has been grand, and that should continue through March Madness and into the MLB Season. Many of you already know that Baseball is the best sport for me and by far the easiest to beat. Let’s look forward to some more Large Profits in the coming weeks/months.

In addition, I will have some nice articles/thoughts right here on how to beat March Madness and also how to beat MLB. That is coming within the next few days on this Blog, so stayed tuned and check back daily.