Posts Tagged ‘handicapping’

The time of the year is here. What time of the year is it? It is time for
100’s of Handicappers to spit out their 2010 College and Pro Previews and
keeping up with the Industry in which I am part of, I feel it is important
for me to do the same. A lot of Handicappers spend a lot of time doing
this exercise every year and for the most part, all of the one’s that are
out there to the general public are all the same. The fact is, most are
copy and paste jobs from other Previews and the info derived from reading
these are about the same as well. The Title of this piece might be misnamed but since everyone loves these Previews I thought I would would title it this way to get you to read it. If you let this sink in, this piece will make you a better handicapper though.

HOW CAN WE BENEFIT FROM THIS PHENOMENON?
As we know, Oddsmakers set lines based on Public Perception. They do this
so that they can balance their books as closely as possible. Their only
goal is to set the numbers so that equal, or about equal betting action is
on both sides of the number can be had. There is no doubt that they want
to know what Bettors are thinking and these Previews help them do that.
Yes, that’s right. They read these Articles too and that means good things
for us. It means that they know that they are more than likely going to
get more action on the teams that are featured as “Gonna Score a lot” or
“Gonna Have a Great Start” or “Gonna Have a Great Year.” Since all
Previews are about the same, I would suspect that they don’t read them
all, as there is no reason to. Just like everything else in this industry,
most Handicappers derive their plays based on the same standard
handicapping methodology that has been around for decades. That is where
the “Under the Radar” Guy comes in.

THE SPECIAL SITUATIONS
Each year we have a number of these and Oddsmakers don’t know what to do
with them. What are these situations? Certainly one of those would be the
various Coaching Changes that we see every year. I am not absolutely
talking about the Head Coach and in fact, more gain can be had by looking
into both the Offensive and Defensive Coordinator shifts in both College
and Pro Football. Not only can these changes dramatically improve a team,
they can damage one as well. That is especially true in the College Ranks,
and that is especially true in the first couple or three weeks of the
season. I covered some of this in “Handicapping Our Children” and the fact
is College Athletes are NOT Grownups. Some of them are brilliant students,
but learning new ways of doing things sometimes comes with growing pains.
While Coaching Changes are designed to make things better, in the
shorterm, they often do not. Looking for teams in this special situation
can do your bankroll well. Key changes at key playing positions can also
mean good things for teams but they too can mean disaster in the shorterm.

WHAT CAN WE DO TO GET A JUMPSTART?
Read. Not those 100’s of Previews being put out by those Handicapping
Services. I personally spend a few hours a week reading local newspapers,
school newspapers, Team Forums, Blogs, and I subscribe to any alerts or
new articles that come out from these sources so that it comes to my inbox
on a daily basis. Today alone, I will have some alerts and notices to read
that have come my way, and many offer info that can’t be found anywhere
else. Of course, you can’t believe everything you read, so it is always
wise to verify with as many sources as possible the info that might come
your way. This is by far the best way to know what is really going on with
the very many Division 1A schools in the land. In my many years of doing
this, I have also met and chatted with some really sharp people who follow
their favorite teams and they are there to answer any questions that I
might have prior to the season opener or during the football season. You
just can’t replace this with any other kind of info on the web or printed
publication.

THE FUTURES AND EARLY TOTALS
September has always been my most profitable month of the year and I guess
it always will be. Oddsmakers scramble every year to figure out setting
correct lines and they fail miserably every year. It is always fun stuff
for me to go back and read some of last year’s Previews to find out how
poorly the recommendations were because many squads that are expected to
be “Hot Shit” do not pan out, and some that are expected to be “Doodly
Squat” do pan out. Teams with new offensive schemes often struggle a great
deal in the early going and that creates some really good Total
Opportunities for us. It also creates some Total Wins Futures as well. It
is also important to note that returning starters on defense is probably
the most important aspect of knowing who has got it and who does not.
Sheer numbers of starters returning is less important than a good nucleus
of better one’s. This is where your sources can come in handy, because
many know how well replacements will fit the program. As always, I will
have 4 to 7 Futures Bets this year and as always, they will do swimmingly
well. You can look for those in late July to early August.

WINNING AT FOOTBALL IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE
Much like Major League Baseball, digging into the numbers can make you a
lot of money at this sport. Finding ways to find winners is more than just
using the standard handicapping practices, and the various handicapping
sites on the web. Knowing the mindset of teams, the Special Situations at
the beginning and during the season, and thinking outside of the box will
put you way ahead of those guys in the Big Buildings in Vegas who eat
Goose Liver almost every day. Why not accept the challenge this year and
be be the best that you can be? I promise you that if you do, you will
never go back to what you are doing now.

Being in this business for 20 years I feel that it is my duty to help others that are striving to make it in this very competitive market in which we are in. Contained in this article will be all the weapons you need to make you a Big Shot but you are going to have to change some things if you have not already. Nobody has to know that you are handicapping daily while sitting at the coffee table in your den whoofing down Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Nobody has to know that your Day Job as a UPS Delivery Guy is the reason why you release your plays late in the day, after the last delivery. Only tell them what they need to know and you are well on your way to Big Money.

Your Name
This is probably the most important aspect of being successful and if you don’t have the right name you are starting out on the wrong foot. Your actual name is probably boring and does not really mean anything. So, let’s get a better one. Italian names are the best because Italians are connected. You know what I mean. These guys have all the inside info and everyone knows that. Some of the best names have already been taken but still plenty of good one’s out there, like Rizzo, Lombardi, De Luca, Mancini, and Moretti. You don’t really have to be Italian but it does help to know a few Italian words. Your first name is even more important as it denotes something about you. One of the best is “Lefty” but once again you don’t really have to be lefthanded. However, it would be best that when in a public situation to pick up and eat your Little Debbie Snack Cakes with your lefthand. If that is not the way you want to go then I have some other ideas. The Word “Bookie” is always a good one. The Bookie Basher, Bookie Killer, Bookie Destroyer, Roll your Bookie, Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him, Force Feed Your Bookie with Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Please note that I am not sure if that last one probably will Google very well. However, I think you get the idea. The Best idea by far is to just be “Lefty Lombardi” of “Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him.” That should cover all of the bases.

Your Punctuation
This is so very important because it gives everything you do excitement and drives people to action. You must us Exclamation Points as often as possible. Multiple Exclamation Points are even better!!! Do you see how you gravitated to that last sentence. It works and it works big. Example: “I have a Nice Card tonight and one of those plays is a Big Game out West.” Wrong!! “Don’t Miss Tonight’s West Coast Bookie Destroyer!!!!” Now which pick are you going to buy? Some of the better Handicapping Services actually disable all forms of punctuation from their laptops so that the Exclamation Point is the only one they can use. You might want to check into that.

Your Picks
We have already covered some of this above but let’s put it to use. You can’t just pick games, you have to pick Bombs!! You have to have multiple Game of Years!! And you have to make sure your potential client knows that they are an idiot if they don’t buy your pick. Example: “Does a Freaking Nuclear Bomb have to go off on your Front Porch before you Realize that you need My West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!!” Nobody wants a Nuclear Bomb to go off on their front porch do they? Of course not. If they don’t buy that, then there is no hope for that potential client and time to churn him and move on. It is important to note that Churning Clients is no real big deal. There are always plenty of Suckers out there willing to buy from a Guy named Lefty who uses exclamation points. And there is no reason to just have one Game of Year. Daily is always better and at least weekly. NFC GOY. AFC GOY. Monday Nite GOY. West Coast GOY. Big Ten GOY. North of the Equator GOY. Surely you can come up with 365 of these throughout the year and don’t stop there. Games of the Decade are even better and Games of the Century are just flat out Money in the Bank. And please, don’t forget those Exclamation Points!!!

Miscellaneous Points
I could probably do a 3 Day Seminar on how to improve your productivity but I will just point out some other ideas to get your Handicapping Services on the right path. Make sure to get on those Pre-Printed Rotation Schedules that come out in early August. This is where you can promote all of your GOY’s as they come out in the fall. This way as your potential clients turn the page on October 23rd, they will see your smiling face holding your Little Debbie Snack Cake in your lefthand, telling everyone about that Nuclear Bomb and the Big West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!! And for God’s Sake, make your Biggest Plays on the Biggest Games. Nobody wants to bet Elon College. They want to bet The Dallas Cowboys. You know, the one’s on TV. It is important to note here that once you have Locked in a Client, you need to continue to Sell him. Yeah sure, he thought he bought all of your picks but wait!! You have just recieved, from one of your Italian Connections, a BIG INSIDER PLAY. This is not part of the regular package but for an additional $29.95 you can get it. Your Client is not going to argue with you. Nobody argues with a guy named Lefty (Insert Italian Name).

You Must Have a Staff
Ok, this is a No Brainer here. One guy cannot operate his handicapping service effectively without a staff. Everyone knows that. Never say “I have isolated a HUGE INSIDER BIG WEST COAST BOOKIE DESTROYER GAME OF THE DECADE BLOWOUT. Always use WE because WE denotes a staff. People like the fact that your office is a busy place with other Lefthanded Italians running around, making phone calls, securing Fixes and such.

I hope that I made this simple enough that even a 4 Year Old Child could understand and I promise you that if you put these things in motion, you are going to reap the benefits. Hey, why not get a 4 Year Old Child to read this. You can make him part of your staff!! And the best thing is, he will probably work for just a couple of Little Debbie Snacks a day. And you already have those right?

I do and my clients will also when they go to the site at http://www.gowebnet.com

I just realized it this morning that this is going to beone of the easiest Super Bowls ever!

By the way, Friday you will want to check back here as I will be talking
about “Trap” Games. Or shall we say telling you why they don’t exist.
Everyone thinks Vegas is always trying to pull one over on us. I see a lot
of conversation about this, mostly on forums, but I don’t see any
intelligent conversation. You can’t miss this discussion right here..