Posts Tagged ‘sports’

It is almost never a Happy Moment when a Major League Baseball Manager steps onto the field headed to the Mound. But it is much less happier when the Manager has to do it, not knowing whether he is making the right choice or not. I have continually proclaimed that a Good Bullpen can and will make all Major League Baseball teams better and not only because they get people out. The fact is, a Good MLB Pen makes starting pitchers better, and make hitters for the team they pitch for more productive. What did I just say?
 
MLB Bullpens Feed Success
Just two days ago, I witnessed a game in which the Washington Nationals led the Phillies 4-0 going to the the bottom of the fourth inning. After 5 innings, they trailed 7-4. Why? Because the Nats Manager left the starter in too damn long. Why did he do that? Because he had no clear alternative as his bullpen was and is one of the worst in the Major League’s. So he left Marquis in there too long and Philly had a Feast. The Nats lost that game and they will continue to lose more this year the same way. But how often do we see a team that has good starting pitching but a poor bullpen? How often do we see a team that has a good Bullpen, but poor starting pitching? Almost never, because they work together to make it happen. Regardless of how good a starter is, he is going to run out of gas at some point in the contest. That is when the manager has the decision to jerk him, or leave him in, and that decision is determined by what other choices he has. Teams with Good Mid-Relievers have more options. That means that their Starter’s Stats are going to be better and on the other side, that means their Closers are going to be also, because they get “Set Up” more often in a good spot and are more rested to make good things happen.
 
Managers Are Paid to Manage
This is what these guys do, hence their name. But they don’t get to do that as often with the throwers on the staff unless they have the confidence to to so. They also don’t have the opportunity to do more offensively with hit and runs, stolen bases, sacrifice bunts, and other offensive ploys unless they are working from strength. In this context strength simply means being in the game, trailing by small margin, tied, or ahead in the contest. Already this year we are seeing teams like the Bluejays, Twins, Athletics, Phillies and Cardinals win a lot of money for those that are betting them, and they are also winning a lot of games for their fans. Is it just a fluke that all of these teams are ranked in the Top 10 Bullpens this year so far? I don’t think so.

This Blog is designed to provide both the Smart Bettor and Average Better with information they can use. It is not up on the Web to Promote AAA Sports as I do enough of that elsewhere to attract Quality Sports Investors. But from time to time, I do want everyone to know how good, or bad my plays are doing. Right now, they are doing very good with the Best Bet/Diamond Combo producing a Perfect 8-0 over the last 8 Investments. Overall, the Diamond Club has just been a Killer at 124-61 and the Combo since inception is 235-136. That is actually better than anticipated, but the info has been grand, and that should continue through March Madness and into the MLB Season. Many of you already know that Baseball is the best sport for me and by far the easiest to beat. Let’s look forward to some more Large Profits in the coming weeks/months.

In addition, I will have some nice articles/thoughts right here on how to beat March Madness and also how to beat MLB. That is coming within the next few days on this Blog, so stayed tuned and check back daily.

Handicapping Professional Sports and College Sports are very similar in many ways, but in some ways they are totally different and distinguishing between the two can be good for your bankroll. While I have not reached Senior Citizen Status just yet, I have been around the block a few times and I certainly have grown as an individual along the way. I still have a way to go before I grow up and of course I would like to keep it that way. However, there are certain things in my life that are much more stable now than when I was a young brash college athlete of 18 years old.

Distractions
When I was growing up, we did not have this fancy texting device that we have now. All we had was a home phone, and of course a CB Radio. Today’s kids have got it all, with texting, internet chat, and video games galore. And let’s not forget about those IPods. These are clearly distractions to everyday life and in fact they are everyday life. Young Girls today can also be a huge distraction to a young man trying to grow up, and although it is a nice distraction to have, they can deter one from doing and concentrating on things that are most important.

What Does This Mean?
It means that College Age Athletes have a lot more to deal with. They don’t come home everyday to the same routine, and in some cases, they don’t come home at all. Emotionally, they can be a Rollercoaster and Physically, they can be a disaster sometimes unless they are watched over carefully. They tend to wear everything on their sleeve and that makes them less predictable in how they will perform in a game situation. Or does it? I like to refer to college athletes as Unpredictably Predictable. That means that there are certain situations where we can most likely expect them to act accordingly. They simply have more highs and more lows and know when that is going to happen is paramount to betting success with College Sports.

Let’s Put This to Use
Last night the Kentucky Wildcats hosted a team that gave them their first loss of the season. They were flying high at the time of that first meeting, doing a lot of texting, playing a lot of video games, and getting plenty of “Comfort” from their girlfriends as the made their trip to Columbia, South Carolina. They were simply unfocused and certainly felt like they were unstoppable. As a 7 point favorite, they got their ass handed to them. Last night, they were focused in a Big Way, and they returned the favor. I have seen this scenerio time and time again and spotting this behavior gives you a great advantage. West Virginia for instance has had unfocused and focused behavior this year as well, most recently losing at UConn to a very focused Husky Squad. I can look at most every quality team’s record this year game for game and see letdowns, and also see moments of greatness. There are more and better opportunities to spot this behavior in College Sports because of the Highly Emotional and Highly Unstableness of those that play at these ages. Let’s always remember that going forward.

Being in this business for 20 years I feel that it is my duty to help others that are striving to make it in this very competitive market in which we are in. Contained in this article will be all the weapons you need to make you a Big Shot but you are going to have to change some things if you have not already. Nobody has to know that you are handicapping daily while sitting at the coffee table in your den whoofing down Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Nobody has to know that your Day Job as a UPS Delivery Guy is the reason why you release your plays late in the day, after the last delivery. Only tell them what they need to know and you are well on your way to Big Money.

Your Name
This is probably the most important aspect of being successful and if you don’t have the right name you are starting out on the wrong foot. Your actual name is probably boring and does not really mean anything. So, let’s get a better one. Italian names are the best because Italians are connected. You know what I mean. These guys have all the inside info and everyone knows that. Some of the best names have already been taken but still plenty of good one’s out there, like Rizzo, Lombardi, De Luca, Mancini, and Moretti. You don’t really have to be Italian but it does help to know a few Italian words. Your first name is even more important as it denotes something about you. One of the best is “Lefty” but once again you don’t really have to be lefthanded. However, it would be best that when in a public situation to pick up and eat your Little Debbie Snack Cakes with your lefthand. If that is not the way you want to go then I have some other ideas. The Word “Bookie” is always a good one. The Bookie Basher, Bookie Killer, Bookie Destroyer, Roll your Bookie, Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him, Force Feed Your Bookie with Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Please note that I am not sure if that last one probably will Google very well. However, I think you get the idea. The Best idea by far is to just be “Lefty Lombardi” of “Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him.” That should cover all of the bases.

Your Punctuation
This is so very important because it gives everything you do excitement and drives people to action. You must us Exclamation Points as often as possible. Multiple Exclamation Points are even better!!! Do you see how you gravitated to that last sentence. It works and it works big. Example: “I have a Nice Card tonight and one of those plays is a Big Game out West.” Wrong!! “Don’t Miss Tonight’s West Coast Bookie Destroyer!!!!” Now which pick are you going to buy? Some of the better Handicapping Services actually disable all forms of punctuation from their laptops so that the Exclamation Point is the only one they can use. You might want to check into that.

Your Picks
We have already covered some of this above but let’s put it to use. You can’t just pick games, you have to pick Bombs!! You have to have multiple Game of Years!! And you have to make sure your potential client knows that they are an idiot if they don’t buy your pick. Example: “Does a Freaking Nuclear Bomb have to go off on your Front Porch before you Realize that you need My West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!!” Nobody wants a Nuclear Bomb to go off on their front porch do they? Of course not. If they don’t buy that, then there is no hope for that potential client and time to churn him and move on. It is important to note that Churning Clients is no real big deal. There are always plenty of Suckers out there willing to buy from a Guy named Lefty who uses exclamation points. And there is no reason to just have one Game of Year. Daily is always better and at least weekly. NFC GOY. AFC GOY. Monday Nite GOY. West Coast GOY. Big Ten GOY. North of the Equator GOY. Surely you can come up with 365 of these throughout the year and don’t stop there. Games of the Decade are even better and Games of the Century are just flat out Money in the Bank. And please, don’t forget those Exclamation Points!!!

Miscellaneous Points
I could probably do a 3 Day Seminar on how to improve your productivity but I will just point out some other ideas to get your Handicapping Services on the right path. Make sure to get on those Pre-Printed Rotation Schedules that come out in early August. This is where you can promote all of your GOY’s as they come out in the fall. This way as your potential clients turn the page on October 23rd, they will see your smiling face holding your Little Debbie Snack Cake in your lefthand, telling everyone about that Nuclear Bomb and the Big West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!! And for God’s Sake, make your Biggest Plays on the Biggest Games. Nobody wants to bet Elon College. They want to bet The Dallas Cowboys. You know, the one’s on TV. It is important to note here that once you have Locked in a Client, you need to continue to Sell him. Yeah sure, he thought he bought all of your picks but wait!! You have just recieved, from one of your Italian Connections, a BIG INSIDER PLAY. This is not part of the regular package but for an additional $29.95 you can get it. Your Client is not going to argue with you. Nobody argues with a guy named Lefty (Insert Italian Name).

You Must Have a Staff
Ok, this is a No Brainer here. One guy cannot operate his handicapping service effectively without a staff. Everyone knows that. Never say “I have isolated a HUGE INSIDER BIG WEST COAST BOOKIE DESTROYER GAME OF THE DECADE BLOWOUT. Always use WE because WE denotes a staff. People like the fact that your office is a busy place with other Lefthanded Italians running around, making phone calls, securing Fixes and such.

I hope that I made this simple enough that even a 4 Year Old Child could understand and I promise you that if you put these things in motion, you are going to reap the benefits. Hey, why not get a 4 Year Old Child to read this. You can make him part of your staff!! And the best thing is, he will probably work for just a couple of Little Debbie Snacks a day. And you already have those right?

Is Vegas Trapping You?

Posted: February 5, 2010 in basketball, Blogroll, football, sports
Tags: ,

Help!! Vegas is Trapping Me!!

I am handicapping the Card this past Tuesday and while doing so, I notice on some forums that people are talking about a couple of games going that nite, Rhode Island at Lasalle, and Kansas State at Nebraska. In both instances guys are saying that the lines of Rhode Island -4 and Kansas -3 at “Vegas Traps.” The conversation makes me sick to my stomach as I know there is nothing of the such. Vegas DOES NOT try to Trap anyone and those that continue to believe so are missing the boat. There is a scout line that comes out early at a couple books in Sin City and Big Bettors are always there to capitilize on a good number. It is a time for the various outs to find out where the betting line is going and what is going to happen with the market if they move the number. In both cases when they moved this line further toward the favorites, Big Money stepped in to bring it back down. By the time you got a chance to bet the contests the market has already set the number and the books know what will happen if they move it. While Books are willing to take a position on a game, they ARE NOT willing to be Killed at any time. By the way, both favorites covered easily so The Trap People missed a good opportunity if they were scared off the Mythical Trap Theory.

Nice Best Bet goes tonight and you can get onboard by going to AAA Sports.

I do and my clients will also when they go to the site at http://www.gowebnet.com

I just realized it this morning that this is going to beone of the easiest Super Bowls ever!

By the way, Friday you will want to check back here as I will be talking
about “Trap” Games. Or shall we say telling you why they don’t exist.
Everyone thinks Vegas is always trying to pull one over on us. I see a lot
of conversation about this, mostly on forums, but I don’t see any
intelligent conversation. You can’t miss this discussion right here..

Money Management

Posted: February 3, 2010 in basketball, Blogroll, football, sports
Tags: , ,

Money Management is something often overlooked and also something that is vital in being successful at sports betting. In fact there are many good handicappers that can pick games at a high rate of return but they fail to actually pocket anything because they don’t have clear program to do so. I am going to attempt to sway those of you that are floundering with this most important part of sports wagering.

BANKROLL
One must have a clearly defined bankroll. A good bankroll is defined as the amount that you have allocated and set aside toward your wagering and not just what you might have in an online book at this very moment. It should be an amount that you can comfortably lose without putting yourself in a bind or changing your lifestyle in a dramatic way. For the sake of this example I am going to pick a bankroll of $5000. Yours might be higher and yours might be lower.

BANKROLL UNIT BET
A bankroll unit bet is simply the amount of money you would wager per bet based on a percentage of your total bankroll. I recommend 1.5% per Unit based on my plays but on average my usual play would be 2 Units or 3%. I will also use that for this exercise. By limiting your average bet size to just 3%, you are in a position to weather any storms that will come your way. Your bankroll is going to flucuate much like the S&P on Wall Street. But the goal is to always see your money make an increase over a period time much like a quality stock will do. My Money Management Plan allows you to do that and also allows you to increase your wagers at safe intervals.

THE PLAN
The Plan is a very simple one. Start will 3% wagers and increase your wagers as your bankroll increases, but do it at safe 20% intervals. This will allow you to get well over and beyond any real possibility of going back to the previous level but will also increase your chances of pocketing more money as your funds grow. I had hoped to build a chart and I will but for now I am just getting the info up as I feel it is very important. Take note that because I am using 3% Bankroll Plays as an example, it would take 6.67 Units won (3% X 6.67 = 20%) to reach the next level. That works out to be about 1.55 Units per week if you set a goal of moving up each level monthly. (1.55 X 4.3 weeks) It is important to note that once you reach a level, you should keep your wagers at that level until you reach the next one, either up or down. Now, for the fun part. Let’s see what results would be based on these facts….

BANKROLL              UNIT BET            UNITS WON
$5,000                             150                             6.67
$6,000                             180                           13.34
$7,200                             220                          20.01
$8,600                             260                          26.68
$10,300                           310                           33.35
$12,300                            370                         40.02
$14,700                           440                          46.69
$17,600                           530                          53.36
$21,100                            630                          60.03
$25,200                          760                          66.70
$30,200                          900                           73.37
$36,300                        1090                           80.04

RESULTS
As you can see, by winning 6.67 Units per month, in one year, your bankroll would increase from just $5000 to over $36,000, yet your overall risk would remain the same, just 3% per wager. By increasing your wagers at pre-determined points and keeping your wagers at a basically even keel, you will be more successful than you have ever been before. Of course, at some point you will want to stop increasing your wagers as you reach your own comfort level. That is when the real fun begins as you start dragging your money of your accounts. At this point, all you need to do is to make sure you are getting good advice on what to bet or have a plan yourself to accomplish that same goal. I have certainly reached my comfort level and you will too if you follow this program. I hope that you choose to do so.